What are chargebacks really costing you?
Each chargeback costs you the disputed order plus a fee: Stripe charges $15 per dispute (non-refundable) and another $15 to fight it (returned if you win); PayPal charges $15, rising to $30 for sellers flagged as high-volume disputers. The bigger cost is the lost order itself — which is why expected cost scales with your chargeback rate, not your win rate. Model your exposure below.
Expected chargeback cost ≈ $169.2/month (2.4 disputes: $51.12 in fees + $118.08 in lost orders).
- Dispute fees (2.4 × $15, non-refundable) Official fact$36
- Counter fees kept on losses (returned when you win) Official fact$15.12
- Lost orders (1.97 disputes lost × $60) Calculation$118.08
Assumption: Expected-value estimate across many orders — not a prediction for any single case.
Assumption: Lost-order cost assumes the full order value (goods + revenue) is gone; recovered inventory would lower it.
Assumption: PayPal's High Volume Dispute tier ($30/dispute) applies to sellers with high dispute ratios and is not modeled unless you're flagged.
- Chargeback rate dominates: halving it beats winning twice as many disputes at almost any volume.
- Winning helps twice on Stripe — you recover the order AND the counter fee.
Fight, refund, or prevent?
The math above usually surprises sellers in one direction: prevention beats litigation. Cutting your chargeback rate from 0.8% to 0.4% helps more than doubling your win rate, because winning still costs time and (on losses) fees, while a prevented dispute costs nothing. Cross-border orders dispute more — longer delivery windows, unfamiliar statement descriptors, customs surprises on DAP shipments — and all three are fixable.
This is a SellerSays evidence checklist, not legal advice: tracking with delivery confirmation to the verified address, the customer's order communications, your refund-policy acceptance, and (for digital goods) access logs. File before the deadline in your dashboard; late evidence loses automatically.
Common questions
- Chargeback or refund — which is cheaper?
- A refund, almost always: you lose the order but pay no dispute fee and take no hit to your dispute ratio. Refunding a suspicious order you can't defend is often the rational move.
- Why does the dispute ratio itself matter?
- Card networks and processors monitor it: sustained high ratios trigger PayPal's $30 high-volume tier, processor reserves, or account termination — costs far beyond any single dispute.
Official sources behind these numbers
- Stripe US charges a $15 dispute-received fee per dispute; it is non-refundable even if you win (businesses outside Mexico). Stripe · verified 2026-07-22 · effective 2025-06-01
- Stripe US charges a $15 dispute-countered fee when you challenge a dispute; this fee is returned if you win. Stripe · verified 2026-07-22 · effective 2025-06-01
- PayPal's Standard Dispute fee is $15.00 USD per dispute. PayPal · verified 2026-07-22 · effective 2026-07-15
- PayPal's High Volume Dispute fee is $30.00 USD per dispute, applied to sellers with high dispute ratios. PayPal · verified 2026-07-22 · effective 2026-07-15